Breakdown and Prediction for the 2013-2014 Carolina Hurricanes

The 2013 Carolina Hurricanes had a roller coaster of a season.  They started the year 8-4-1, and then the injuries struck.  Their starting goaltender, Cam Ward, was lost for the remainder of the season and the team finished out 7-17-3 in their last 27 games.  The Hurricanes finished in the middle of the Southeast Division, however, they landed the 5th overall pick because they were one of the worst teams in the league.

On September 11, Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford announced that Joni Pitkanen will miss the entire 2013-2014 season.  The team immediately signed veteran defenseman Ron Hainsey to a one-year, $2 million contract.  However, the rest of the team looks to be healthy and ready for the season.  New acquisitions Mike Komisarek and Andrej Sekera will provide leadership on the blue-line, while youngsters Elias Lindholm and Ryan Murphy will fight for roster spots and playing time.  The play of these new pieces will go a long way in determining the fate of this Hurricanes team.

FORWARDS

The top six forwards on the Carolina Hurricanes will be able to score this year, there is no doubt about that.  The line of Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty, and Alexander Semin accounted for 54 goals last year (1.125 goals per game).  Their second line will be formidable as well with three of Jeff Skinner, Jordan Staal, Tuomo Ruutu and Elias Lindholm making the cut.  Lindholm, the 5th overall pick in the 2013 draft, has top-six potential, but to play on a second line in the NHL as an 18 year old is a tall order. 

The bottom six forwards will include the one man left out of the aforementioned list and a host of below average players.  Not only are they weak offensively (which is not a huge knock on 3rd and 4th line players anyway) but they are not, as a group, very responsible defensively.  The Hurricanes had a team GAA last season of 3.31, the second worst in the NHL.  Although they had their share of goaltending and defensive problems, hockey is a team sport in which the forwards must commit to team defense. That did not happen last year and they paid the price.  With the loss of Joni Pitkanen, the bottom six forwards will have to make sure that they are staying responsible on the defensive side of their game this season if the Hurricanes are going to be successful.

DEFENSE

The Carolina Hurricanes had quite a few defensive struggles last year.  They were ravaged by injuries and had 12 different starting defensemen throughout the year.  This summer the Hurricanes defense lost their leading point producer in Joe Corvo and arguably their best all-around defenseman in Joni Pitkanen to a season long injury.  Jim Rutherford brought in veterans like Mike Komisarek and Andrej Sekera.  Both of these defensemen will be helpful to the stability of the back end, but neither player can replace the offensive output that Corvo gave them.

Any offensive production will have to come from a pair of youngsters.  Justin Faulk, 21, was only two points behind Corvo and is slated to start the year on the Hurricanes top pairing.  In 38 games last season Faulk averaged 24:00 per game.  Ryan Murphy, 20, was the Hurricanes first pick in the 2011 draft (12th overall) and was an offensive machine during his junior career.  In a total of 228 games with the Kitchener Rangers, he tallied 220 points.  Murphy got his first taste of NHL action at the end of last season, playing in four games, averaging 21:03 per game, going -4, and recording zero points.  If these two young defensemen step up, it would be a tremendous help to the Hurricane’s defense.

As a whole, the defense of the Hurricanes does not look very good.  They are full of big, old, stay-at-home defensemen who are great at defending, but add little puck-moving or offensive abilities.  Ron Hainsey does not account for the loss of Pitkanen while both of the young guns are just that, young.  When the success of your defense essentially rests on a 20 year old and a 21 year old, you know you’re in bad shape.

GOALTENDING

Cam Ward won the Stanley Cup with the Hurricanes in 2006 and has been their starter ever since.  From the 2006-2007 season through the 2011-2012 season he played in 427 games for the Hurricanes (including playoffs) averaging almost 72 games per year.  There is little doubt that Cam Ward is a great goalie, his injury last year proving just how valuable he is to this team.  The question is, can he stay healthy? Playing all of those games puts a lot of wear and tear on a goalie’s body.  If Ward can not hold up this year it will surely spell trouble for the Hurricanes.

GM Jim Rutherford made a shrewd move this summer by bringing in goaltender Anton Khudobin.  Khudobin backed up Tuuka Rask last season in Boston, going 9-4-1 in 14 games with a .920 SV% and a 2.32 GAA.  Last season the Hurricanes had the second worst GAA in the league at 3.31.  Having a proven back up like Khudobin can let head coach Kirk Muller lighten Ward’s load.  Although the injury question is still there for Ward, the goaltending situation is much better than it was last year.

REALIGNMENT

Like the Washington Capitals, the Hurricanes will be moving from the NHL’s easiest division to, arguably, it’s hardest.  Although the Hurricanes fared much better against former Atlantic Division opponents (PHI, PIT, NYI, NYR, NJD) than the Caps did, they still only had a 6-9 record against these teams.  The Hurricanes also did not fare well against the Capitals last year.  Even with a healthy line up, this new division will not be making things any easier for the Hurricanes.

The 2013-2014 Carolina Hurricanes will finish at or near the bottom of the division.  They have one of the best top lines in the NHL and have a tremendous goaltender in Cam Ward.  However, they do not have the necessary forward depth to compete for a playoff spot and their defense just has too many holes.  With the exception of the Capitals, the former Southeast Division teams will all struggle mightily this season (that goes for those in the new Atlantic Division as well).  I predict the Hurricanes to finish last in the Metropolitan Division and near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.  

Breakdown and Prediction of the 2013-2014 Washington Capitals

The 2013-2014 Washington Capitals will be a very interesting team to watch.  Sophomore coach Adam Oates will attempt to add another division title to his resume, Alex Ovechkin will be eager to replicate his performance from last season that saw him win the Hart Trophy (league MVP), and Mike Green will try to show the league that he is back to his old form as a Norris Trophy candidate.  Although this team is full of potential, the division switch could spell trouble to this squad.

HIGH FLYING OFFENSE

The Capitals top six forwards are among the league’s best.  Star forwards Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have played together for years and will be fixtures on the top line.  They will most likely be joined by the freshly signed Marcus Johansson.  The loss of Mike Ribeiro as the second line center was nearly offset by the addition of Mikhail Grabovski.  Grabovski, who’s offensive numbers were far below those of Ribeiro last season, will be eager to prove himself to the Capitals brass. He will most likely be flanked by Troy Brouwer and Martin Erat.  The bottom six is filled out with solid players like Broooks Laich, Joel Ward, and 2012 first round pick, Tom Wilson.

This forward crop is similar to the one this team put on the ice last year.  They are quality players who have shown an ability to score.  Ovechkin is their leader, but players like Backstrom, Grabovski and Erat will be expected to chip in as well.  The players trust Adam Oates, and he trusts them.  When players buy into a coach’s system, the results can be amazing.  This principle was evident at the end of last season as the Capitals went on a tear over their last 19 games (15-2-2), averaging 3.84 goals per game.  However, for much of the season the Capitals seemed to be streaky and inconsistent.  There is no doubt that this team can put up a lot of goals, the only question is, can they do it consistently? 

TOP-HEAVY DEFENSE

The Capitals have one of the better groups of top defensemen in the division.  Their bottom pairing may be an issue, but their strength at the top of the depth chart is undeniable.  Mike Green re-emerged last season to lead all defensemen in goals (12), while youngsters John Carlson and Karl Alzner continued to develop into very solid defensemen.  These three represent the core of the Capitals defense and will make up the top pairing (most likely Alzner-Green) and the better half of the second pairing.

The bottom 3 defensemen are a question mark going into the season.  There is no doubt that Green, ALzner, and Carlson are top-four defensemen.  However, the defensemen in competition for the final three spots are all best suited to be either bottom pairing or seventh-man defenders.  The competition for these final spots is between Dmitry Orlov, John Erskine, Jack Hillen, and Steve Olesky.  Who gets those final spots is a toss-up.  I like Orlov and Erskine’s chances to make the final cut, but where in the line-up they fall depends on their performance in training camp.  On the offensive side of the puck, this Capitals defense will be solid.  Green will help the power play unit stay at the top the league, while Alzner and Carlson will chip in a modest amount offensively.  Defensively, this group is about average and their success could depend on the performance of Braden Holtby.

SOLID GOALTENDING

Braden Holtby had a breakout performance in the 2012 playoffs.  In 14 games he went 7-7 with a GAA of 1.95 and a .935 SV%.  Last season, his first as the Capitals starter, he played well, going 23-12 with a GAA of 2.58 and a.920 SV%.  This season he will need to continue to play well in order for the Capitals to be successful.  He will have his hands full with the superstars in the Metropolitan Division.  As a whole, the talent that Holtby will face on a game-to-game basis will be tougher than last year.  Whether or not Holtby, and his back-up Michal Neuvirth, can withstand the pressure will go a long way in determining this team’s fate.

X-FACTOR: THE DIVISION SWITCH

Last year, the Capitals went 15-3 against divisional opponents.  Their record against the members of their new division was a combined 8-12.  They lost 2 out of 3 meetings against each of the Flyers, Rangers, Islanders, and Devils, while losing all 3 of their games against the Penguins.  This happened in a year in which the Flyers and Devils missed the playoffs.  Although the Capitals looked like a great team at times last season, many of those games were played against the likes of the Panthers and Lightning.  Can the Capitals be successful it in a division against tougher competition?  Did they look better than they actually were last year because of their easy schedule?

 

My prediction for the Capitals is that they will fall somewhere in the middle of the division.  They will be better than teams like the Devils and Hurricanes, but not at the same level as a team like the Penguins.  They will fall in the middle and be fighting for a playoff berth with teams like the Flyers, Blue Jackets, and Islanders.  Ultimately, I see them finishing about 4th or 5th in the division and being either the last team in or the last team out of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.  The Capitals will soon find out that this division is much tougher than the old Southeast Division, and how they handle that adversity will show us all that we need to know about these Capitals.

Is a Trade Within the Division on the Horizon?

Due to the influx of hockey news yesterday, there are a plethora of topics that could be discussed today.  However, I would like to revisit a topic that I wrote about last week; trading within the division.  I mentioned that in rare cases, such as the Mark Streit deal this summer, teams will trade with division rivals.  As of yesterday afternoon, there seems to be a situation in the Metropolitan Division that could cause an inter-divisional trade.

Yesterday afternoon, Carolina Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford announced that defenseman Joni Pitkanen will miss the entire 2013-2014 season.  Even before this news, Carolina was in need of help on their blue-line.  Pitkanen was originally drafted 4th overall by the Flyers in 2002.  He has never lived up to the expectations that were put on him when he was drafted, but he has developed into a solid defenseman.  In the lockout-shortened 2013 season Pitkanen played top-pairing minutes, averaging 22:49 per game.  Many games he logged nearly 30 minutes and was a reliable defender.

There are a few teams in the NHL who are going into training camp who need to drop defensemen.  The Philadelphia Flyers have nine defensemen on one-way contracts (ten including Chris Pronger).  The Toronto Maple Leafs have seven defensemen under contract (six on one-way deals, one on a two-way deal) and are still trying to sign RFA defenseman Cody Franson.  The New Jersey Devils also have seven defensemen under contract (six on one-way deals, one on a two-way deal), but have multiple prospects who are NHL ready.

Although the Maple Leafs are an intriguing option for the Hurricanes to acquire D-relief, I could just as easily see a deal being made with one of the two division rivals mentioned above.  Let’s look at why each situation has a chance of producing a trade.

PHILADELPHIA

According to capgeek.com the Flyers are $2,053,522 over the salary cap.  Although they will be able to hide cap in the AHL until Pronger becomes LTIR eligible, the Flyers could still use some cap relief.  The nine defensemen who are one-way contracts comprise $29,287,500 in cap space, nearly half of the salary cap. 

Aside from monetary considerations, the Flyers have a logjam on their defensive depth chart.  Kimmo Timonen, Luke Schenn, Mark Streit, Braydon Coburn, and Nicklas Grossman are almost assured spots on the roster barring injury.  That leaves two open spots for players like Andrej Meszaros, Erik Gustafsson, Marc-Andre Bourdon, and Bruno Gervais, not to mention young players who had a cup of coffee in the NHL last season like Oliver Lauridsen, Brandon Manning, and Matt Konan.

Pitkanen’s cap hit is $4.5 million and he will be a UFA next summer.  The Flyers defensemen who are most likely to be traded are Meszaros ($4 million cap hit), Grossman ($3.5 million cap hit), or Coburn ($4.5 million cap hit).  All three of those defensemen are solid and have some decent NHL experience.  Both Coburn and Grossman have modified no-trade clauses in their contracts in which they could block a possible trade.  Similar to Pitkanen, Meszaros will be a UFA next summer.  After running into a string of injuries, Meszaros is finally healthy and will see ice time during the Flyers preseason.  Therefore, do not be surprised to see Meszaros traded to Carolina as soon as he proves that he is healthy.

NEW JERSEY

The New Jersey Devils have very old group of defensemen.  Anton Volchenkov (31), Andy Greene (30), Bryce Salvador (37), Marek Zidlicky (36), and Peter Harrold (30) are all over 30 years old.  Adam Larsson is only 20 years old and could see time on their first unit.  However, the Devils have two young prospects who many think are NHL ready.

Jon Merrill, 21, was the 38^th overall pick in 2010 and is regarded as one of the Devil’s top prospects.  Merrill is a big left handed defenseman who has been developing at the University of Michigan.  Alexander Urbom, 22, was the Devils’ third round pick in 2009 (73rd overall).  He is also a huge defenseman (6’5”, 215lbs) who has spent the last few seasons in the AHL with the Albany Devils.  He played one game for the Devils last year and has 14 games of NHL experience over the past three years. He is now poised to make a push for the big club out of training camp.  Getting rid of one of their veterans would give Merrill or Urbom an NHL spot and help bring more youth to the Devils back end.

The defenseman that is most likely to be dealt from the Devils is Andy Greene.  Volchenkov and Zidlicky have no trade clauses and Salvador is on an over-35 contract.  Greene has a reasonable contract and would help clear the way for one of the young guns to step in.

The situation on the blue-line is very bleak for the Carolina Hurricanes.  They do, however, have options.  Unless the Hurricanes look to the Maple Leafs and opt to offer sheet Franson or pull off a trade for someone like Liles, we may see an inter-divisional trade.  Any of the above trades would help both teams involved.  The only question is, what would Carolina have to give up?  What is being demanded of them could decide which team the Hurricanes decide to work with.

 

Coming This Weekend: A breakdown and prediction for the 2013-2014 Washington Capitals.

7 Candidates for a Breakout Season

Every year there are players who come out of nowhere to have monstrous seasons.  Usually these players have been highly touted prospects who finally become the player that they have been projected to be for a long time.  Last year, two examples from Metropolitan Division teams stand out. 

Jakub Voracek, formerly the 2007 7^th overall draft pick, had a career high in goals (22) last season despite it only lasting 48 games.  He cemented his place as a top line right winger and won the Flyer’s Bobby Clarke trophy (team MVP).   Sergei Bobrovsky, an undrafted Russian goalie, was signed by the Flyers in 2010 amidst much hype.  The notoriously impatient Flyers discarded the young net minder after two subpar seasons only to watch him become the league’s best goalie last season.  He went from being shipped away for draft picks, to winning the Vezina trophy.

This year will not be different from any other.  There are a plethora of young players in the Metropolitan Division who are ready to take off.  Here is a list of seven players that I think can make the leap this season.

Ryan Johansen, Center, 21,CBJ:  Johansen is going to be a beast in the NHL very soon.  He was the 4^th overall pick in the 2010 NHL entry draft because of his raw talent and his incredible size.  He stands 6’3”, 203lbs, is a smooth skater, and is very hard to knock off of the puck.  This year he will be entering his 3^rd NHL season and has all of the tools necessary to have a breakout season.

Brayden Schenn, Center/LW, 22,PHI:  Schenn was the 5^th overall pick in the 2009 NHL entry draft by the LA Kings.  He was sent to Philadelphia with Wayne Simmonds in exchange for then Flyers captain Mike Richards.  Schenn was drafted as a center, but because of the Flyers depth down the middle he has been playing both center and left wing.  Schenn will be entering his third NHL season and will finally be able to stay in one spot.  With the acquisition of Lecavalier, Schenn will move to full-time left wing and will finally have consistent line-mates.  These factors make Schenn a legitimate breakout candidate.

Ryan McDonagh, Defenseman, 24,NYR:  McDonagh was originally the 12^th overall pick in the 2007 NHL entry draft.  He has now played two and a half seasons and is only 24 years old.  He is at the time in his career in which young defensemen begin to overcome the steep NHL learning curve.  McDonagh has shown steady improvement in his time in the NHL and has decent size.  This could be a big year for the 6’1”, 213lb defender.

Beau Bennett, RW, 21,PIT:  Bennett is one of the few young players on the loaded Penguins roster.  The 20^th overall pick in the 2010 NHL entry draft dressed in 26 games last season.  He logged more than 15 minutes in only one of those games last season, but he is slated to play with Evgeni Malkin and James Neal, which should greatly increase his playing time and scoring chances.  He is a big (6’2”, 207lbs) forward with great skill.  Look for big things from Bennett this season.

Erik Gustafsson, Defenseman, 24,PHI:  Gustafsson went undrafted, but was then signed by the Flyers in 2010 after playing for Northern Michigan university.  Since that signing he has shown steady growth.  After a shaky call up early in the season, Gustafsson was sent back down to the minors.  However, he was called back up to the Flyers because of the injuries to their defense and ended up averaging 20:09 minutes per game.  He continued his strong play by being the number one defenseman on the Swedish World Championship team this summer.  He signed a one-way contract this summer and looks poised to improve on last year’s stretch run.

Ryan Murray, Defenseman, 19,CBJ:  The 2nd overall pick in the 2012 NHL entry draft is an X-factor for the Blue Jackets this season.  He is a very smooth, positionally sound defenseman with pretty good size (6’1”, 198lbs).  He was enjoying a good season with his junior team last season until a shoulder injury in November sidelined him for the rest of the season.  This year, Murray is looking to crack the Blue Jackets line up out of camp and show why he was drafted with the 2^nd pick.  As a nineteen year old defenseman, there will be a learning curve, but his extreme maturity level leads me to believe that we can expect big things from him sooner rather than later.

Ryan Strome, Center, 20, NYI:  Strome was the 5^th overall pick in the 2011 NHL entry draft.  Since then he has played with his junior team, the Niagra Ice Dogs.  In his last three years in the OHL, Strome has been lighting it up offensively.  He has averaged over 1.6 points per game while also improving on the defensive end.  He played 10 games in the AHL at the end of the season and is in a very good position to make the Islanders line up out of camp.  If so, he can make immediate contributions.

Honorable Mentions: Sean Couturier, Karl Alzner, Elias Lindholm.

These players are each going to be asked to take on a large role this season.  How they respond will make a lot of difference in their teams’ success.  Teams like the Flyers and Blue Jackets will be relying more on their young guns, while teams like the Capitals have more moderately experienced players.  How this division shakes out could be in the hands of some of the relatively unknown names above.

Why I Have Modest Expectations for Sergei Bobrovsky

Sergei Bobrovsky had a breakout season in 2013. Almost single-handedly, he brought the Columbus Blue Jackets within a point of the playoffs.  In 38 games played last season, Bobrovsky had a 21-11 record with a .932 SV% and a 2.00 GAA.  The Blue Jackets finished the season with the same point total as the eighth seeded Wild, yet they lost the playoff tiebreaker.  Much of their success was attributed to Bobrovsky and he was rewarded this off-season with the Vezina trophy and a two year, $11.25 million contract.

Bobrovsky is currently 24 years old and the prime of his career is in front of him.  Many believe that last season was a launching pad to a career as an All-Star goalie.  There are a few reasons, however, why I would have more modest expectations for Bobrovsky this upcoming season.

First, teams now have a “book” on him.  Bobrovsky spent his first two seasons with the Flyers in an awkward role.  He was never the unanimous starter, yet he played 54 games in his first season with Philadelphia and was reasonably successful.  His opponents in the Western Conference last year had not routinely prepared for him and therefore he had an advantage against them (This was also a contributing factor to Steve Mason’s success with the Flyers at the end of the season).  With his Vezina trophy in hand, no one will be overlooking Bobrovsky this year.  Coaches are compiling scouting videos as we speak to make sure their players are ready for the young Russian net minder.

Second, the pressure this year will be more than Bobrovsky has ever had in his career.  While with the Flyers he had his fair share of criticism and pressure.  At times it may have been too much for him, and that is part of the reason why he was traded.  He could not handle the pressure in Philly, and his performance was worse than that of fellow Russian goalie Ilya Bryzgalov.  This year, the pressure of a Vezina trophy and $11.25 million will be more than Bobrovsky felt in Philadelphia.  I think Bobrovsky can handle the pressure better than he did when he was with the Flyers, but I do think it will negatively affect his performance.

Finally, Bobrovsky is playing in a division with a lot more offensive firepower than he did last year.  His division last year included Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit, and Nashville.  Both Chicago and Detroit had offensively skilled players, however, St. Louis is a defense-first team and Nashville is relatively weak up front.  This year, Bobrovsky will have to play against guys like Crosby, Ovechkin, Giroux, Tavares, E. Staal, Nash, Malkin, and Jagr to name a few.  The snipers in the division will make life much more difficult for Bobrovsky.

Ultimately, I still think Bobrovsky is a very good goaltender.  He will have a successful career and a good upcoming season for the Blue Jackets.  He will not, however, play at the level he played at this year.  I see Bobrovsky finishing the season with about a .910 SV% and a 2.5 GAA.  Those numbers are not bad, but they are not enough to win a Vezina trophy.  The biggest question is, will it be enough to take Columbus back to the playoffs?  We’ll just have to see.

Time to Find New Trading Partners

Rarely in professional sports do teams make trades with their division rivals.  The thought of giving a hated opponent something that they value is counter-intuitive to the thinking of a general manager.  Because each team faces their division rivals so many times during the season and will almost certainly have to face them in the playoffs, it is unwise to make any moves that would improve a division opponent.

There are exceptions to this rule.  On June 12, 2013 the Islanders traded impending free agent defenseman Mark Streit to Philadelphia for minor-leaguer Shane Harper and a fourth round draft pick.  Trades like these only happen in unusual circumstances.  In this case, Streit had publicly stated that he would pursue free agency.  Therefore, it made sense for Islanders GM Garth Snow to unload Streit to any team that would pay for him as opposed to letting him walk away in free agency, and getting nothing in return.

Over the past few years the Columbus Blue Jackets have made a lot of big trades.  They have made deals involving players like Jeff Carter, Rick Nash, Marian Gaborik, and Sergei Bobrovsky.  However, the divisional realignment could affect Columbus’ trading patterns.  Here is a list of all of the trades the Blue Jackets have made since June 15, 2012.

Date and Team	To CBJ:	To Other:
July 2, 2013 – TAM	Future Considerations	Rights to Drew Olsen (D)
June 30, 2013 – PIT	2013 2nd round pick	2013 2nd round pick
	2013 3rd round pick
April 3, 2013 – CGY	Blake Comeau (F)	2013 5th round pick
April 3, 2013 – NYR	Marian Gaborik (F)	Derrick Brassard (F)
	Blake Parlett (D)	Derek Dorsett (F)
	Steve Delisle (D)	John Moore (D)
		2014 6th round pick
April 3, 2013 – PHI	Michael Leighton (G)	Steve Mason (G)
	2015 3rd round pick
April 3, 2013 – PIT	Patrick Killeen (G)	Future Considerations
March 12, 2013 – PHI	Matthew Ford (F)	Future Considerations
March 10, 2013 – WPG	Spencer Machacek (F)	Thomas Kubalik (F)
July 23, 2012 – NYR	Brandon Dubinsky (F)	Rick Nash (F)
	Artem Anisimov (F)	Steve Delisle (D)
	Tim Erixon (D)	Conditional 2013 3rd round pick
	2013 1st round pick
July 1, 2012 – OTT	Nick Foligno (F)	Marc Methot (D)
June 22, 2012	Sergei Bobrovsky (G)	2012 2nd round pick
		2012 4th round pick
		2013 4th round pick

                                                                                                                       

                                                                                                                         

These trades show a trend in the Blue Jackets management.  Whether they were under Scott Howson (GM until February 2013) or under Jarmo Kekalainen (GM from February to the present), the Blue Jackets have traded heavily with former Atlantic Division teams.  Seven out of the eleven trades were to the Flyers, Rangers, or Penguins.  That is an astounding 64% of their trades.  Furthermore, three out of the four trades that the Blue Jackets made at the 2013 trade deadline, April 3rd, were to Atlantic Division teams.

None of the trades above were with the Blue Jackets former division rivals.  Columbus’ management wanted to ship their players to teams that they thought they would see only twice a year.  The realignment of the divisions moved the Blue Jackets to the Metropolitan Division, which consists of the five teams that were formerly a part of the Atlantic Division, the Carolina Hurricanes, and the Washington Capitals.  They will now have to face players who were once franchise cornerstones, like Rick Nash and Steve Mason, on a regular basis.  On the other hand, the Flyers will have to see Sergei Bobrovsky quite a bit and the Rangers will have to try to stop Marian Gaborik.

In the upcoming seasons it will be interesting to see who becomes trading partners with the Blue Jackets.  One thing is for certain, the CBJ-NYR and CBJ-PHI blockbusters that we have become accustomed to will have to cease.

With All Due Respect to NHL.com

Throughout the month of August, NHL.com evaluates each team in what they call the 30 in 30 series.  From the 1st of the month until the 30th, they evaluated one team per day.  Among other things, an “X-factor” for each team was identified. 

The Philadelphia Flyers were evaluated on Wednesday and their X-factor was identified as 20-year old center Sean Couturier.  The article compared and contrasted Couturier’s rookie season to last season.  The article stated that if Couturier performs the way he did in his rookie year, the Flyers will be successful.  However, if he performs the way he did in his sophomore campaign, then the Flyers are doomed to another disappointing season.

There are a few reasons why Couturier’s performance is not something that will make or break the Flyers season.  The first reason is that Couturier has actually been relatively consistent over the past two years.  Saying that Couturier suffered a ‘sophomore slump’ is an exagerration.  Couturier had 13 goals and 14 assists for 27 points during his rookie season.  His 4 goals and 11 assists last season seem, at first glance, to be well below what he produced his rookie year.  However, when you prorate his stats to a full 82-game season, it shows that Couturier was on pace to score about 7 goals and gain 19 assists.  Although his goal total would have dropped, his point total would be almost identical to the year before.

Secondly, the offensive expectations on Couturier have been unreasonable.  Couturier is a great third line center who plays a very solid two-way game.  Although his offense was not clicking at times last season, Couturier continued to play solid defensively.  Many of the unrealistic expectations stem from his hat trick in game two of the 2012 Stanley Cup playoffs.  What really set Couturier apart in that series was the way in which he contained Evgeni Malkin.  His three goals in game two were his only goals in the entire playoffs.

If you look at Couturier with proper expectations and knowledge of his game, it becomes clear that the Flyers know what they are going to get out of Couturier next year.  He will be a solid third line center who will chip in offensively.  If he does have a breakout offensive season, which some expect he will in the next year or so, that will be a bonus.  However, if he does not, it will not break the Flyers.  They have a plethora of offensive weapons on their top two lines.  The expectation that he will have a breakout offensive season is not enough to hail him as the Flyers X-factor.  Brayden Schenn, for example, is also poised to make an offensive leap in the near future, but that does not make him an X-factor.

So who then is the Flyer’s X-factor?  With all due respect to NHL.com, it is Steve Mason.

Steve Mason was acquired last year by the Flyers at the trade deadline.  Mason had fallen out of favor in Columbus behind former Flyer Sergei Bobrovsky.  Mason had an amazing rookie campaign in 2008-2009, going 33-20 with a SV% .916, a GAA of 2.29, while winning the Calder Trophy (awarded to the best rookie).

Since that season, Mason has been unable to return to his rookie form.  In the next three seasons he went 60-73 with an average SV% of .900 and an average GAA of 3.16.  Mason only played a handful of games in 2013 before the starting job was wrestled out of his hands by Bobrovsky.  Bobrovsky went on to win the Vezina Trophy (awarded to the best goaltender).

Mason played in seven games after coming to Philadelphia.  In those seven games Mason looked like he did in 2008-2009.  He was in position, he was fast, and he did not let bad goals mess with his head.  He went 4-2 with a SV% of .944 and a GAA of 1.90.  This small sampling of games has Flyers fans salivating.  

However, Flyers fans would be wise to wait a little longer before crowning Mason as the team’s savior.

The questions surrounding Mason are what make him the team’s X-factor.  Was his performance at the end of last year an anomaly or has he really got his career back on track?  Will Mason be able to keep performing well even while Eastern Conference teams are spending more time scouting him?  At just 25 years of age, is Mason mature enough to carry a team through the highs and lows of a full regular season?  How will Mason respond to the Flyers defensive woes?

The Flyers could be moderately successful even if the answers to a few of these questions are not good.  A very similar case could be made as the X-factor for goalie Ray Emery.  Every indication is that the two goalies will play in tandem with one another until one man clearly distinguishes himself as the starter.  Mason has the potential to be a top-notch goalie in the NHL.  Ray Emery is a solid goaltender, but has been relegated to mostly back-up duty over the past few years. 

If Mason plays like he did during last year's seven games with Philadelphia, the Flyers will be a dangerous team next season.  If not, the Flyers will be in the lower half of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

Star Power

Taking a look at the Devils yesterday got me thinking about the dynamics of this division.  As we saw yesterday, offense is a huge question for the Devils.  However, they have one of the fiercest goaltending tandems in the league.  When trying to predict where teams will fall in the Metropolitan Division this year, it is crucial to take a look at their strengths and weaknesses.

Carolina Hurricanes:  The Hurricanes are one of the most top-heavy teams in the NHL.  The Staal brothers, along with Semin, Tlusty, and Skinner will carry the offense with little to no help from the bottom six.  They have a decent defense (when healthy) and Cam Ward is still a quality goaltender.  If Elias Lindholm (the fifth overall pick in the 2013 draft) makes the team he could contribute, but that is still a longshot.  This team has potential, but it is hard for me to be optimistic about their chances this year.

Columbus Blue Jackets:  Fresh off of a Vezina trophy and a two year $11.25 million contract, Sergei Bobrovsky will be seeking to prove that his breakout 2013 campaign was no fluke.  This year, however, he may finally get some goal support.  The Blue Jackets were 25th in the NHL last year in goals per game at 2.4.  At the trade deadline they added Marian Gaborik (12G-15A last season) and over the summer they signed free agent Nathan Horton (13G-9A last season, 7G-12A in the playoffs).  Their defense is decent and will be helped out quite a bit if 2012 second overall pick Ryan Murray is the real deal.

New Jersey Devils:  Sub-par offense, average defense, top-notch goaltending.  For more info, see yesterday’s blog.

New York Islanders:  A breakout season from John Tavares and a long-awaited playoff berth have fans smiling again on Long Island.  The Islanders lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Penguins in six games.  It was their first playoff berth in six years.  The Islanders are a team on the rise up front, but they are shaky on the back end.  They watched Mark Streit go to division rival Philadelphia while adding energy forward Cal Clutterbuck.  The team looks very similar to the one that made the playoffs last year.  However, Nabokov is not exactly a stud between the pipes (he is not terrible either) and the teams who they edged out to make the playoffs have improved quite a bit this summer (see Philadelphia and Columbus).  The Islanders will have to work extra hard to return to the playoffs next season.

New York Rangers:  While perusing the Rangers line up only two names really stuck out, Rick Nash and Henrik Lundqvist.  In terms of firepower up front, the Rangers do not have it.  However, they have a few young guns who could step up and contribute this season (Kreider? Brassard?).  Under Vigneault, the offense should be given more creative freedom, enabling some of those guys to improve.  The defense will be solid, as long as Staal stays healthy.  However, as Lundqvist goes, so goes the Rangers.  Like New Jersey, this team will rely heavily on their goaltending this season.

Philadelphia Flyers:  The Flyers top nine forwards this season are among the league’s best.  Giroux is now a bona-fide superstar, Voracek scored 22 goals last season (t-8th in the NHL), Wayne Simmonds has shown a great scoring touch, they added Vinvent Lecavalier via free agency, and I have not even mentioned up and comers like Schenn and Couturier.  The Flyers blue-line is a question going into the season.  Luke Schenn and Brayden Coburn are both quality stay at home guys while Timonen and Streit can move the puck.  Still, they lack any real first pairing material on the back end.  The goaltending situation in Philadelphia will be one to watch.  The tandem of Mason and Emery could be fantastic, or it could blow up in the Flyers faces.  It will be an interesting year to say the least.

Pittsburgh Penguins:  The Penguins enter another season as the favorites to win it all (Vegas odds are 5/1).  With long term extensions given to 2011-2012 MVP Evgeni Malkin and 2013 Norris Trophy Finalist Kris Letang, the Penguins have the most firepower in the NHL.  Over the past two seasons Crosby, Malkin, Neal, and Letang average a combined 1.17 points per game.  Add to that Kunitz, Dupuis, Bennett and Scuderi, and you have one of the best group of forwards and defensemen in the NHL.  The biggest problem for the Penguins going into the season is their goaltending.  Neither Fleury nor Vokoun looked all that great in the playoffs and they could become a major problem that hampers this great lineup.

Washington Capitals:  Adam Oates did a fine job in his first year as head coach of the Washington Capitals, leading them to a division title after a slow start.  The Caps are another team with their fair share of firepower.  Alex Ovechkin (the reigning league MVP), Nicklas Backstrom, Joel Ward, Troy Brouwer, and Mike Green will make for an exciting team to watch.  Grabovski will bring some skill to the table to help replace Ribeiro, who the Capitals lost to the Coyotes via free agency.  The Capitals defense core is pretty good, and should do well this season barring any injuries.  Goaltending is also a question for the Capitals.  Braden Holtby has shown flashes of greatness and had some very solid stretches.  However, at 23 years old, he still has to prove that he can perform at a high level for a full 82-game season.

The teams in this division seem to fall into one of two categories quite nicely, with the exception of the Hurricanes and Islanders.  The teams that will rely heavily on their goaltending are the Blue Jackets, Rangers, and Devils, while the Flyers, Penguins, and Capitals will use their forward skill to try and outscore their opponent. 

It is a dynamic like this that makes it so difficult to predict what will happen in this division.  Will the skill of Crosby, Malkin, and Neal be able to beat the duo of Brodeur and Schneider?  Can Voracek, Giroux, and Simmonds get the puck past their old teammate Bobrovsky? Who gets the edge, Ovechkin or Lundqvist?

“Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships.”  That phrase has a lot of truth to it, however I do not think it is enough to crown the Devils division champs just yet.  As I preview the other teams in the division, sometime before October, keep this dilemma in mind.  One thing is for sure, whether it is between the pipes or on the first two lines, the Metropolitan Division is not lacking in star power.

 

Breakdown and Prediction for the 2013-2014 NJ Devils

2013 results:

19-19-10

4^th in the Atlantic Division

11^th in the Eastern Conference

It would be very easy for a casual fan to put low expectations on the 2013-2014 New Jersey Devils.  The summer of 2013 marked the second straight year that the Devils watched their best player walk out the door.   In 2012 they saw their captain, Zach Parise, join the Minnesota Wild via free agency on a 13 year $98 million contract.  On July 11, 2013 Ilya Kovalchuk retired from the NHL to play in Russia for SKA St. Petersburg, leaving behind 12 years and $77 million.  The loss of Kovalchuk came on the heels of the Devils losing free agent forward David Clarkson to the Maple Leafs.  These losses cause questions to be raised about the Devils offense in 2013-2014.

OFFENSE BY COMMITTEE

The Devils are only a year removed from a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals.  During that playoff run the Devils scored a total of 59 goals, 19 of which (32.2%) were scored by Kovalchuk, Parise, and Clarkson.  During the lockout shortened 2013 campaign, the Devils were 28^th in the league with only 110 goals (2.3/game), 26 of which (23.6%) were scored by Kovalchuk and Clarkson.  During the 11 games that Kovalchuk missed due to injury, the Devils only scored 19 (1.72/game) total goals.  The Devils were not a particularly good offensive team even with Kovalchuk and Clarkson.  What will they do without them?

Devils GM Lou Lamoriello got to work this summer adding pieces to the offense.  On July 5^th they signed Michael Ryder and Ryan Clowe.  Ryder, at 33 years of age, is a durable right winger who has score 30 or more goals 3 times in his career.  Last year he had 35 points (16G-19A) in 46 games with the Stars and Canadiens.  Clowe is a power forward who has played a majority of his career in San Jose.  He was dealt to the Rangers at the trade deadline and was quickly injured.  Clowe has eclipsed the 20 goal mark twice in his career, 2008-2009 and 2010-2011.  Both of these signings came alongside the loss of Clarkson.  The loss of Kovalchuk on July 11^th was followed by the signing of Hall of Famer Jaromir Jagr on July 23^rd.  Jagr has shown, since his return to the league in 2011, that he is still a top-six forward with a superhuman work ethic and great leadership qualities.  Jagr also had 35 points (16G-19A) during the lockout shortened season with the Stars and then with the Bruins.

The Devils projected top-six forwards are Elias, Zajac, Jagr, Clowe, Henrique, and Ryder.  Is this a lineup that will strike fear into its opponents?  Can this group compete in a division that includes the likes of Crosby, Ovechkin, Giroux, Malkin, Tavares, Nash, Neal, Backstrom, Voracek, and E. Staal?  The offense has relied heavily on Kovalchuk over the past few seasons.  If the Devils are to have any sort of offensive threat whatsoever, the new additions will have to step up while their (relatively) young centers, Zajac and Henrique, will have to play at a high level.  The top-six does not have “that guy” who can carry them anymoe.  Therefore, they will look for offense by committee.

SAME LOOK DEFENSE

The Devils defense core did not undergo any major changes this summer.  The team re-signed veteran Marek Zidlicky to a one-year $4 million contract and traded Henrik Tallinder on July 7^th.  The trade of Tallinder presents an opportunity for the young Adam Larsson to begin taking on more responsibility within the defense.  The core seven of Bryce Salvador, Andy Greene, Adam Larsson, Marek Zidlicky, Anton Volchenkov, Mark Fayne, and Peter Harrold will return for the 2013-2014 season.

The fact that there was little change in the defense should not be a point of concern for the Devils this season.  They allowed only 122 goals (2.54/game) ranking them 13^th in the NHL.  A large portion of their games were played in front of Johan Hedberg, who looked shaky in many of his starts and did not exactly instill confidence in the defensemen.  Overall, this is a solid defensive unit that benefits greatly from fantastic goaltending.

THE BACKBONE

The Devils have been able to count on solid goaltending for the past twenty years.  Future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur has spent his whole career in New Jersey and won 3 Stanley Cups (1995, 2000, and 2003).  His career record is 669-380 with a SV % of .913 and a GAA of 2.23.  Brodeur is entering the final year of his contract.  This summer, Luo Lamoriello made sure that there is a succession plan in place for the 41 year old goaltender.  In a shocking deal with the Vancouver Canucks on draft day, the Devils traded the ninth overall pick for goaltender Cory Schneider.

Schneider is no ordinary back-up goalie and will surely replace Brodeur as the Devils starter upon the latter’s retirement.  In 2013 Schneider went 17-9 while starting 30 games.  His career SV% is .927 and his career GAA is 2.20.  Although it has been a small sample size, Schneider has shown potential to be a top-notch NHL goalie.  Schneider will also benefit from the chance to learn from Brodeur and from having a more stable situation in New Jersey.  In Vancouver, Schneider’s partner in crime, Roberto Luongo, was expected to be traded and this season lost his starting position to Schneider.  However, as a whole, the goaltending situation in Vancouver was a mess that Schneider will be glad to get away from.

PREDICTION

My prediction for the 2013-2014 Devils is that they will be a fringe playoff team.  They have the best goaltending tandem in the NHL playing in a defense-first system.  The team’s goals against per game will drop from the already solid 2.54/game.  However, the offense remains a question.  In the end, hockey is a team sport and the Devils just do not have the pieces to make a deep playoff run.  They will end up between 7^th and 10^th in the East.  They will be 4th or 5th in the Metropolitan Division and fighting for one of the at large playoff spots.  If they do make the playoffs, they will be ousted in one long, hard fought series that their goalies will keep them in.