With All Due Respect to NHL.com

Throughout the month of August, NHL.com evaluates each team in what they call the 30 in 30 series.  From the 1st of the month until the 30th, they evaluated one team per day.  Among other things, an “X-factor” for each team was identified. 

The Philadelphia Flyers were evaluated on Wednesday and their X-factor was identified as 20-year old center Sean Couturier.  The article compared and contrasted Couturier’s rookie season to last season.  The article stated that if Couturier performs the way he did in his rookie year, the Flyers will be successful.  However, if he performs the way he did in his sophomore campaign, then the Flyers are doomed to another disappointing season.

There are a few reasons why Couturier’s performance is not something that will make or break the Flyers season.  The first reason is that Couturier has actually been relatively consistent over the past two years.  Saying that Couturier suffered a ‘sophomore slump’ is an exagerration.  Couturier had 13 goals and 14 assists for 27 points during his rookie season.  His 4 goals and 11 assists last season seem, at first glance, to be well below what he produced his rookie year.  However, when you prorate his stats to a full 82-game season, it shows that Couturier was on pace to score about 7 goals and gain 19 assists.  Although his goal total would have dropped, his point total would be almost identical to the year before.

Secondly, the offensive expectations on Couturier have been unreasonable.  Couturier is a great third line center who plays a very solid two-way game.  Although his offense was not clicking at times last season, Couturier continued to play solid defensively.  Many of the unrealistic expectations stem from his hat trick in game two of the 2012 Stanley Cup playoffs.  What really set Couturier apart in that series was the way in which he contained Evgeni Malkin.  His three goals in game two were his only goals in the entire playoffs.

If you look at Couturier with proper expectations and knowledge of his game, it becomes clear that the Flyers know what they are going to get out of Couturier next year.  He will be a solid third line center who will chip in offensively.  If he does have a breakout offensive season, which some expect he will in the next year or so, that will be a bonus.  However, if he does not, it will not break the Flyers.  They have a plethora of offensive weapons on their top two lines.  The expectation that he will have a breakout offensive season is not enough to hail him as the Flyers X-factor.  Brayden Schenn, for example, is also poised to make an offensive leap in the near future, but that does not make him an X-factor.

So who then is the Flyer’s X-factor?  With all due respect to NHL.com, it is Steve Mason.

Steve Mason was acquired last year by the Flyers at the trade deadline.  Mason had fallen out of favor in Columbus behind former Flyer Sergei Bobrovsky.  Mason had an amazing rookie campaign in 2008-2009, going 33-20 with a SV% .916, a GAA of 2.29, while winning the Calder Trophy (awarded to the best rookie).

Since that season, Mason has been unable to return to his rookie form.  In the next three seasons he went 60-73 with an average SV% of .900 and an average GAA of 3.16.  Mason only played a handful of games in 2013 before the starting job was wrestled out of his hands by Bobrovsky.  Bobrovsky went on to win the Vezina Trophy (awarded to the best goaltender).

Mason played in seven games after coming to Philadelphia.  In those seven games Mason looked like he did in 2008-2009.  He was in position, he was fast, and he did not let bad goals mess with his head.  He went 4-2 with a SV% of .944 and a GAA of 1.90.  This small sampling of games has Flyers fans salivating.  

However, Flyers fans would be wise to wait a little longer before crowning Mason as the team’s savior.

The questions surrounding Mason are what make him the team’s X-factor.  Was his performance at the end of last year an anomaly or has he really got his career back on track?  Will Mason be able to keep performing well even while Eastern Conference teams are spending more time scouting him?  At just 25 years of age, is Mason mature enough to carry a team through the highs and lows of a full regular season?  How will Mason respond to the Flyers defensive woes?

The Flyers could be moderately successful even if the answers to a few of these questions are not good.  A very similar case could be made as the X-factor for goalie Ray Emery.  Every indication is that the two goalies will play in tandem with one another until one man clearly distinguishes himself as the starter.  Mason has the potential to be a top-notch goalie in the NHL.  Ray Emery is a solid goaltender, but has been relegated to mostly back-up duty over the past few years. 

If Mason plays like he did during last year's seven games with Philadelphia, the Flyers will be a dangerous team next season.  If not, the Flyers will be in the lower half of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.