Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Breakdown and Prediction for the 2013-2014 NJ Devils


2013 results:
19-19-10
4th in the Atlantic Division
11th in the Eastern Conference

It would be very easy for a casual fan to put low expectations on the 2013-2014 New Jersey Devils.  The summer of 2013 marked the second straight year that the Devils watched their best player walk out the door.   In 2012 they saw their captain, Zach Parise, join the Minnesota Wild via free agency on a 13 year $98 million contract.  On July 11, 2013 Ilya Kovalchuk retired from the NHL to play in Russia for SKA St. Petersburg, leaving behind 12 years and $77 million.  The loss of Kovalchuk came on the heels of the Devils losing free agent forward David Clarkson to the Maple Leafs.  These losses cause questions to be raised about the Devils offense in 2013-2014.

OFFENSE BY COMMITTEE
The Devils are only a year removed from a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals.  During that playoff run the Devils scored a total of 59 goals, 19 of which (32.2%) were scored by Kovalchuk, Parise, and Clarkson.  During the lockout shortened 2013 campaign, the Devils were 28th in the league with only 110 goals (2.3/game), 26 of which (23.6%) were scored by Kovalchuk and Clarkson.  During the 11 games that Kovalchuk missed due to injury, the Devils only scored 19 (1.72/game) total goals.  The Devils were not a particularly good offensive team even with Kovalchuk and Clarkson.  What will they do without them?

Devils GM Lou Lamoriello got to work this summer adding pieces to the offense.  On July 5th they signed Michael Ryder and Ryan Clowe.  Ryder, at 33 years of age, is a durable right winger who has score 30 or more goals 3 times in his career.  Last year he had 35 points (16G-19A) in 46 games with the Stars and Canadiens.  Clowe is a power forward who has played a majority of his career in San Jose.  He was dealt to the Rangers at the trade deadline and was quickly injured.  Clowe has eclipsed the 20 goal mark twice in his career, 2008-2009 and 2010-2011.  Both of these signings came alongside the loss of Clarkson.  The loss of Kovalchuk on July 11th was followed by the signing of Hall of Famer Jaromir Jagr on July 23rd.  Jagr has shown, since his return to the league in 2011, that he is still a top-six forward with a superhuman work ethic and great leadership qualities.  Jagr also had 35 points (16G-19A) during the lockout shortened season with the Stars and then with the Bruins.

The Devils projected top-six forwards are Elias, Zajac, Jagr, Clowe, Henrique, and Ryder.  Is this a lineup that will strike fear into its opponents?  Can this group compete in a division that includes the likes of Crosby, Ovechkin, Giroux, Malkin, Tavares, Nash, Neal, Backstrom, Voracek, and E. Staal?  The offense has relied heavily on Kovalchuk over the past few seasons.  If the Devils are to have any sort of offensive threat whatsoever, the new additions will have to step up while their (relatively) young centers, Zajac and Henrique, will have to play at a high level.  The top-six does not have “that guy” who can carry them anymoe.  Therefore, they will look for offense by committee.

SAME LOOK DEFENSE
The Devils defense core did not undergo any major changes this summer.  The team re-signed veteran Marek Zidlicky to a one-year $4 million contract and traded Henrik Tallinder on July 7th.  The trade of Tallinder presents an opportunity for the young Adam Larsson to begin taking on more responsibility within the defense.  The core seven of Bryce Salvador, Andy Greene, Adam Larsson, Marek Zidlicky, Anton Volchenkov, Mark Fayne, and Peter Harrold will return for the 2013-2014 season.

The fact that there was little change in the defense should not be a point of concern for the Devils this season.  They allowed only 122 goals (2.54/game) ranking them 13th in the NHL.  A large portion of their games were played in front of Johan Hedberg, who looked shaky in many of his starts and did not exactly instill confidence in the defensemen.  Overall, this is a solid defensive unit that benefits greatly from fantastic goaltending.

THE BACKBONE
The Devils have been able to count on solid goaltending for the past twenty years.  Future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur has spent his whole career in New Jersey and won 3 Stanley Cups (1995, 2000, and 2003).  His career record is 669-380 with a SV % of .913 and a GAA of 2.23.  Brodeur is entering the final year of his contract.  This summer, Luo Lamoriello made sure that there is a succession plan in place for the 41 year old goaltender.  In a shocking deal with the Vancouver Canucks on draft day, the Devils traded the ninth overall pick for goaltender Cory Schneider.

Schneider is no ordinary back-up goalie and will surely replace Brodeur as the Devils starter upon the latter’s retirement.  In 2013 Schneider went 17-9 while starting 30 games.  His career SV% is .927 and his career GAA is 2.20.  Although it has been a small sample size, Schneider has shown potential to be a top-notch NHL goalie.  Schneider will also benefit from the chance to learn from Brodeur and from having a more stable situation in New Jersey.  In Vancouver, Schneider’s partner in crime, Roberto Luongo, was expected to be traded and this season lost his starting position to Schneider.  However, as a whole, the goaltending situation in Vancouver was a mess that Schneider will be glad to get away from.

PREDICTION

My prediction for the 2013-2014 Devils is that they will be a fringe playoff team.  They have the best goaltending tandem in the NHL playing in a defense-first system.  The team’s goals against per game will drop from the already solid 2.54/game.  However, the offense remains a question.  In the end, hockey is a team sport and the Devils just do not have the pieces to make a deep playoff run.  They will end up between 7th and 10th in the East.  They will be 4th or 5th in the Metropolitan Division and fighting for one of the at large playoff spots.  If they do make the playoffs, they will be ousted in one long, hard fought series that their goalies will keep them in.

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