Monday, September 16, 2013

Breakdown and Prediction of the 2013-2014 Washington Capitals


The 2013-2014 Washington Capitals will be a very interesting team to watch.  Sophomore coach Adam Oates will attempt to add another division title to his resume, Alex Ovechkin will be eager to replicate his performance from last season that saw him win the Hart Trophy (league MVP), and Mike Green will try to show the league that he is back to his old form as a Norris Trophy candidate.  Although this team is full of potential, the division switch could spell trouble to this squad.

HIGH FLYING OFFENSE
The Capitals top six forwards are among the league’s best.  Star forwards Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have played together for years and will be fixtures on the top line.  They will most likely be joined by the freshly signed Marcus Johansson.  The loss of Mike Ribeiro as the second line center was nearly offset by the addition of Mikhail Grabovski.  Grabovski, who’s offensive numbers were far below those of Ribeiro last season, will be eager to prove himself to the Capitals brass. He will most likely be flanked by Troy Brouwer and Martin Erat.  The bottom six is filled out with solid players like Broooks Laich, Joel Ward, and 2012 first round pick, Tom Wilson.

This forward crop is similar to the one this team put on the ice last year.  They are quality players who have shown an ability to score.  Ovechkin is their leader, but players like Backstrom, Grabovski and Erat will be expected to chip in as well.  The players trust Adam Oates, and he trusts them.  When players buy into a coach’s system, the results can be amazing.  This principle was evident at the end of last season as the Capitals went on a tear over their last 19 games (15-2-2), averaging 3.84 goals per game.  However, for much of the season the Capitals seemed to be streaky and inconsistent.  There is no doubt that this team can put up a lot of goals, the only question is, can they do it consistently? 

TOP-HEAVY DEFENSE
The Capitals have one of the better groups of top defensemen in the division.  Their bottom pairing may be an issue, but their strength at the top of the depth chart is undeniable.  Mike Green re-emerged last season to lead all defensemen in goals (12), while youngsters John Carlson and Karl Alzner continued to develop into very solid defensemen.  These three represent the core of the Capitals defense and will make up the top pairing (most likely Alzner-Green) and the better half of the second pairing.

The bottom 3 defensemen are a question mark going into the season.  There is no doubt that Green, ALzner, and Carlson are top-four defensemen.  However, the defensemen in competition for the final three spots are all best suited to be either bottom pairing or seventh-man defenders.  The competition for these final spots is between Dmitry Orlov, John Erskine, Jack Hillen, and Steve Olesky.  Who gets those final spots is a toss-up.  I like Orlov and Erskine’s chances to make the final cut, but where in the line-up they fall depends on their performance in training camp.  On the offensive side of the puck, this Capitals defense will be solid.  Green will help the power play unit stay at the top the league, while Alzner and Carlson will chip in a modest amount offensively.  Defensively, this group is about average and their success could depend on the performance of Braden Holtby.

SOLID GOALTENDING
Braden Holtby had a breakout performance in the 2012 playoffs.  In 14 games he went 7-7 with a GAA of 1.95 and a .935 SV%.  Last season, his first as the Capitals starter, he played well, going 23-12 with a GAA of 2.58 and a.920 SV%.  This season he will need to continue to play well in order for the Capitals to be successful.  He will have his hands full with the superstars in the Metropolitan Division.  As a whole, the talent that Holtby will face on a game-to-game basis will be tougher than last year.  Whether or not Holtby, and his back-up Michal Neuvirth, can withstand the pressure will go a long way in determining this team’s fate.

X-FACTOR: THE DIVISION SWITCH
Last year, the Capitals went 15-3 against divisional opponents.  Their record against the members of their new division was a combined 8-12.  They lost 2 out of 3 meetings against each of the Flyers, Rangers, Islanders, and Devils, while losing all 3 of their games against the Penguins.  This happened in a year in which the Flyers and Devils missed the playoffs.  Although the Capitals looked like a great team at times last season, many of those games were played against the likes of the Panthers and Lightning.  Can the Capitals be successful it in a division against tougher competition?  Did they look better than they actually were last year because of their easy schedule?

 

My prediction for the Capitals is that they will fall somewhere in the middle of the division.  They will be better than teams like the Devils and Hurricanes, but not at the same level as a team like the Penguins.  They will fall in the middle and be fighting for a playoff berth with teams like the Flyers, Blue Jackets, and Islanders.  Ultimately, I see them finishing about 4th or 5th in the division and being either the last team in or the last team out of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.  The Capitals will soon find out that this division is much tougher than the old Southeast Division, and how they handle that adversity will show us all that we need to know about these Capitals.

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