Monday, September 23, 2013

Breakdown and Prediction for the 2013-2014 Carolina Hurricanes

The 2013 Carolina Hurricanes had a roller coaster of a season.  They started the year 8-4-1, and then the injuries struck.  Their starting goaltender, Cam Ward, was lost for the remainder of the season and the team finished out 7-17-3 in their last 27 games.  The Hurricanes finished in the middle of the Southeast Division, however, they landed the 5th overall pick because they were one of the worst teams in the league.

On September 11, Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford announced that Joni Pitkanen will miss the entire 2013-2014 season.  The team immediately signed veteran defenseman Ron Hainsey to a one-year, $2 million contract.  However, the rest of the team looks to be healthy and ready for the season.  New acquisitions Mike Komisarek and Andrej Sekera will provide leadership on the blue-line, while youngsters Elias Lindholm and Ryan Murphy will fight for roster spots and playing time.  The play of these new pieces will go a long way in determining the fate of this Hurricanes team.

FORWARDS

The top six forwards on the Carolina Hurricanes will be able to score this year, there is no doubt about that.  The line of Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty, and Alexander Semin accounted for 54 goals last year (1.125 goals per game).  Their second line will be formidable as well with three of Jeff Skinner, Jordan Staal, Tuomo Ruutu and Elias Lindholm making the cut.  Lindholm, the 5th overall pick in the 2013 draft, has top-six potential, but to play on a second line in the NHL as an 18 year old is a tall order. 

The bottom six forwards will include the one man left out of the aforementioned list and a host of below average players.  Not only are they weak offensively (which is not a huge knock on 3rd and 4th line players anyway) but they are not, as a group, very responsible defensively.  The Hurricanes had a team GAA last season of 3.31, the second worst in the NHL.  Although they had their share of goaltending and defensive problems, hockey is a team sport in which the forwards must commit to team defense. That did not happen last year and they paid the price.  With the loss of Joni Pitkanen, the bottom six forwards will have to make sure that they are staying responsible on the defensive side of their game this season if the Hurricanes are going to be successful.

DEFENSE

The Carolina Hurricanes had quite a few defensive struggles last year.  They were ravaged by injuries and had 12 different starting defensemen throughout the year.  This summer the Hurricanes defense lost their leading point producer in Joe Corvo and arguably their best all-around defenseman in Joni Pitkanen to a season long injury.  Jim Rutherford brought in veterans like Mike Komisarek and Andrej Sekera.  Both of these defensemen will be helpful to the stability of the back end, but neither player can replace the offensive output that Corvo gave them.

Any offensive production will have to come from a pair of youngsters.  Justin Faulk, 21, was only two points behind Corvo and is slated to start the year on the Hurricanes top pairing.  In 38 games last season Faulk averaged 24:00 per game.  Ryan Murphy, 20, was the Hurricanes first pick in the 2011 draft (12th overall) and was an offensive machine during his junior career.  In a total of 228 games with the Kitchener Rangers, he tallied 220 points.  Murphy got his first taste of NHL action at the end of last season, playing in four games, averaging 21:03 per game, going -4, and recording zero points.  If these two young defensemen step up, it would be a tremendous help to the Hurricane’s defense.

As a whole, the defense of the Hurricanes does not look very good.  They are full of big, old, stay-at-home defensemen who are great at defending, but add little puck-moving or offensive abilities.  Ron Hainsey does not account for the loss of Pitkanen while both of the young guns are just that, young.  When the success of your defense essentially rests on a 20 year old and a 21 year old, you know you’re in bad shape.

GOALTENDING

Cam Ward won the Stanley Cup with the Hurricanes in 2006 and has been their starter ever since.  From the 2006-2007 season through the 2011-2012 season he played in 427 games for the Hurricanes (including playoffs) averaging almost 72 games per year.  There is little doubt that Cam Ward is a great goalie, his injury last year proving just how valuable he is to this team.  The question is, can he stay healthy? Playing all of those games puts a lot of wear and tear on a goalie’s body.  If Ward can not hold up this year it will surely spell trouble for the Hurricanes.

GM Jim Rutherford made a shrewd move this summer by bringing in goaltender Anton Khudobin.  Khudobin backed up Tuuka Rask last season in Boston, going 9-4-1 in 14 games with a .920 SV% and a 2.32 GAA.  Last season the Hurricanes had the second worst GAA in the league at 3.31.  Having a proven back up like Khudobin can let head coach Kirk Muller lighten Ward’s load.  Although the injury question is still there for Ward, the goaltending situation is much better than it was last year.

REALIGNMENT

Like the Washington Capitals, the Hurricanes will be moving from the NHL’s easiest division to, arguably, it’s hardest.  Although the Hurricanes fared much better against former Atlantic Division opponents (PHI, PIT, NYI, NYR, NJD) than the Caps did, they still only had a 6-9 record against these teams.  The Hurricanes also did not fare well against the Capitals last year.  Even with a healthy line up, this new division will not be making things any easier for the Hurricanes.



The 2013-2014 Carolina Hurricanes will finish at or near the bottom of the division.  They have one of the best top lines in the NHL and have a tremendous goaltender in Cam Ward.  However, they do not have the necessary forward depth to compete for a playoff spot and their defense just has too many holes.  With the exception of the Capitals, the former Southeast Division teams will all struggle mightily this season (that goes for those in the new Atlantic Division as well).  I predict the Hurricanes to finish last in the Metropolitan Division and near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.  

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