Why I Have Modest Expectations for Sergei Bobrovsky

Sergei Bobrovsky had a breakout season in 2013. Almost single-handedly, he brought the Columbus Blue Jackets within a point of the playoffs.  In 38 games played last season, Bobrovsky had a 21-11 record with a .932 SV% and a 2.00 GAA.  The Blue Jackets finished the season with the same point total as the eighth seeded Wild, yet they lost the playoff tiebreaker.  Much of their success was attributed to Bobrovsky and he was rewarded this off-season with the Vezina trophy and a two year, $11.25 million contract.

Bobrovsky is currently 24 years old and the prime of his career is in front of him.  Many believe that last season was a launching pad to a career as an All-Star goalie.  There are a few reasons, however, why I would have more modest expectations for Bobrovsky this upcoming season.

First, teams now have a “book” on him.  Bobrovsky spent his first two seasons with the Flyers in an awkward role.  He was never the unanimous starter, yet he played 54 games in his first season with Philadelphia and was reasonably successful.  His opponents in the Western Conference last year had not routinely prepared for him and therefore he had an advantage against them (This was also a contributing factor to Steve Mason’s success with the Flyers at the end of the season).  With his Vezina trophy in hand, no one will be overlooking Bobrovsky this year.  Coaches are compiling scouting videos as we speak to make sure their players are ready for the young Russian net minder.

Second, the pressure this year will be more than Bobrovsky has ever had in his career.  While with the Flyers he had his fair share of criticism and pressure.  At times it may have been too much for him, and that is part of the reason why he was traded.  He could not handle the pressure in Philly, and his performance was worse than that of fellow Russian goalie Ilya Bryzgalov.  This year, the pressure of a Vezina trophy and $11.25 million will be more than Bobrovsky felt in Philadelphia.  I think Bobrovsky can handle the pressure better than he did when he was with the Flyers, but I do think it will negatively affect his performance.

Finally, Bobrovsky is playing in a division with a lot more offensive firepower than he did last year.  His division last year included Chicago, St. Louis, Detroit, and Nashville.  Both Chicago and Detroit had offensively skilled players, however, St. Louis is a defense-first team and Nashville is relatively weak up front.  This year, Bobrovsky will have to play against guys like Crosby, Ovechkin, Giroux, Tavares, E. Staal, Nash, Malkin, and Jagr to name a few.  The snipers in the division will make life much more difficult for Bobrovsky.

Ultimately, I still think Bobrovsky is a very good goaltender.  He will have a successful career and a good upcoming season for the Blue Jackets.  He will not, however, play at the level he played at this year.  I see Bobrovsky finishing the season with about a .910 SV% and a 2.5 GAA.  Those numbers are not bad, but they are not enough to win a Vezina trophy.  The biggest question is, will it be enough to take Columbus back to the playoffs?  We’ll just have to see.