With All Due Respect to NHL.com

Throughout the month of August, NHL.com evaluates each team in what they call the 30 in 30 series.  From the 1st of the month until the 30th, they evaluated one team per day.  Among other things, an “X-factor” for each team was identified. 

The Philadelphia Flyers were evaluated on Wednesday and their X-factor was identified as 20-year old center Sean Couturier.  The article compared and contrasted Couturier’s rookie season to last season.  The article stated that if Couturier performs the way he did in his rookie year, the Flyers will be successful.  However, if he performs the way he did in his sophomore campaign, then the Flyers are doomed to another disappointing season.

There are a few reasons why Couturier’s performance is not something that will make or break the Flyers season.  The first reason is that Couturier has actually been relatively consistent over the past two years.  Saying that Couturier suffered a ‘sophomore slump’ is an exagerration.  Couturier had 13 goals and 14 assists for 27 points during his rookie season.  His 4 goals and 11 assists last season seem, at first glance, to be well below what he produced his rookie year.  However, when you prorate his stats to a full 82-game season, it shows that Couturier was on pace to score about 7 goals and gain 19 assists.  Although his goal total would have dropped, his point total would be almost identical to the year before.

Secondly, the offensive expectations on Couturier have been unreasonable.  Couturier is a great third line center who plays a very solid two-way game.  Although his offense was not clicking at times last season, Couturier continued to play solid defensively.  Many of the unrealistic expectations stem from his hat trick in game two of the 2012 Stanley Cup playoffs.  What really set Couturier apart in that series was the way in which he contained Evgeni Malkin.  His three goals in game two were his only goals in the entire playoffs.

If you look at Couturier with proper expectations and knowledge of his game, it becomes clear that the Flyers know what they are going to get out of Couturier next year.  He will be a solid third line center who will chip in offensively.  If he does have a breakout offensive season, which some expect he will in the next year or so, that will be a bonus.  However, if he does not, it will not break the Flyers.  They have a plethora of offensive weapons on their top two lines.  The expectation that he will have a breakout offensive season is not enough to hail him as the Flyers X-factor.  Brayden Schenn, for example, is also poised to make an offensive leap in the near future, but that does not make him an X-factor.

So who then is the Flyer’s X-factor?  With all due respect to NHL.com, it is Steve Mason.

Steve Mason was acquired last year by the Flyers at the trade deadline.  Mason had fallen out of favor in Columbus behind former Flyer Sergei Bobrovsky.  Mason had an amazing rookie campaign in 2008-2009, going 33-20 with a SV% .916, a GAA of 2.29, while winning the Calder Trophy (awarded to the best rookie).

Since that season, Mason has been unable to return to his rookie form.  In the next three seasons he went 60-73 with an average SV% of .900 and an average GAA of 3.16.  Mason only played a handful of games in 2013 before the starting job was wrestled out of his hands by Bobrovsky.  Bobrovsky went on to win the Vezina Trophy (awarded to the best goaltender).

Mason played in seven games after coming to Philadelphia.  In those seven games Mason looked like he did in 2008-2009.  He was in position, he was fast, and he did not let bad goals mess with his head.  He went 4-2 with a SV% of .944 and a GAA of 1.90.  This small sampling of games has Flyers fans salivating.  

However, Flyers fans would be wise to wait a little longer before crowning Mason as the team’s savior.

The questions surrounding Mason are what make him the team’s X-factor.  Was his performance at the end of last year an anomaly or has he really got his career back on track?  Will Mason be able to keep performing well even while Eastern Conference teams are spending more time scouting him?  At just 25 years of age, is Mason mature enough to carry a team through the highs and lows of a full regular season?  How will Mason respond to the Flyers defensive woes?

The Flyers could be moderately successful even if the answers to a few of these questions are not good.  A very similar case could be made as the X-factor for goalie Ray Emery.  Every indication is that the two goalies will play in tandem with one another until one man clearly distinguishes himself as the starter.  Mason has the potential to be a top-notch goalie in the NHL.  Ray Emery is a solid goaltender, but has been relegated to mostly back-up duty over the past few years. 

If Mason plays like he did during last year's seven games with Philadelphia, the Flyers will be a dangerous team next season.  If not, the Flyers will be in the lower half of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

Star Power

Taking a look at the Devils yesterday got me thinking about the dynamics of this division.  As we saw yesterday, offense is a huge question for the Devils.  However, they have one of the fiercest goaltending tandems in the league.  When trying to predict where teams will fall in the Metropolitan Division this year, it is crucial to take a look at their strengths and weaknesses.

Carolina Hurricanes:  The Hurricanes are one of the most top-heavy teams in the NHL.  The Staal brothers, along with Semin, Tlusty, and Skinner will carry the offense with little to no help from the bottom six.  They have a decent defense (when healthy) and Cam Ward is still a quality goaltender.  If Elias Lindholm (the fifth overall pick in the 2013 draft) makes the team he could contribute, but that is still a longshot.  This team has potential, but it is hard for me to be optimistic about their chances this year.

Columbus Blue Jackets:  Fresh off of a Vezina trophy and a two year $11.25 million contract, Sergei Bobrovsky will be seeking to prove that his breakout 2013 campaign was no fluke.  This year, however, he may finally get some goal support.  The Blue Jackets were 25th in the NHL last year in goals per game at 2.4.  At the trade deadline they added Marian Gaborik (12G-15A last season) and over the summer they signed free agent Nathan Horton (13G-9A last season, 7G-12A in the playoffs).  Their defense is decent and will be helped out quite a bit if 2012 second overall pick Ryan Murray is the real deal.

New Jersey Devils:  Sub-par offense, average defense, top-notch goaltending.  For more info, see yesterday’s blog.

New York Islanders:  A breakout season from John Tavares and a long-awaited playoff berth have fans smiling again on Long Island.  The Islanders lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Penguins in six games.  It was their first playoff berth in six years.  The Islanders are a team on the rise up front, but they are shaky on the back end.  They watched Mark Streit go to division rival Philadelphia while adding energy forward Cal Clutterbuck.  The team looks very similar to the one that made the playoffs last year.  However, Nabokov is not exactly a stud between the pipes (he is not terrible either) and the teams who they edged out to make the playoffs have improved quite a bit this summer (see Philadelphia and Columbus).  The Islanders will have to work extra hard to return to the playoffs next season.

New York Rangers:  While perusing the Rangers line up only two names really stuck out, Rick Nash and Henrik Lundqvist.  In terms of firepower up front, the Rangers do not have it.  However, they have a few young guns who could step up and contribute this season (Kreider? Brassard?).  Under Vigneault, the offense should be given more creative freedom, enabling some of those guys to improve.  The defense will be solid, as long as Staal stays healthy.  However, as Lundqvist goes, so goes the Rangers.  Like New Jersey, this team will rely heavily on their goaltending this season.

Philadelphia Flyers:  The Flyers top nine forwards this season are among the league’s best.  Giroux is now a bona-fide superstar, Voracek scored 22 goals last season (t-8th in the NHL), Wayne Simmonds has shown a great scoring touch, they added Vinvent Lecavalier via free agency, and I have not even mentioned up and comers like Schenn and Couturier.  The Flyers blue-line is a question going into the season.  Luke Schenn and Brayden Coburn are both quality stay at home guys while Timonen and Streit can move the puck.  Still, they lack any real first pairing material on the back end.  The goaltending situation in Philadelphia will be one to watch.  The tandem of Mason and Emery could be fantastic, or it could blow up in the Flyers faces.  It will be an interesting year to say the least.

Pittsburgh Penguins:  The Penguins enter another season as the favorites to win it all (Vegas odds are 5/1).  With long term extensions given to 2011-2012 MVP Evgeni Malkin and 2013 Norris Trophy Finalist Kris Letang, the Penguins have the most firepower in the NHL.  Over the past two seasons Crosby, Malkin, Neal, and Letang average a combined 1.17 points per game.  Add to that Kunitz, Dupuis, Bennett and Scuderi, and you have one of the best group of forwards and defensemen in the NHL.  The biggest problem for the Penguins going into the season is their goaltending.  Neither Fleury nor Vokoun looked all that great in the playoffs and they could become a major problem that hampers this great lineup.

Washington Capitals:  Adam Oates did a fine job in his first year as head coach of the Washington Capitals, leading them to a division title after a slow start.  The Caps are another team with their fair share of firepower.  Alex Ovechkin (the reigning league MVP), Nicklas Backstrom, Joel Ward, Troy Brouwer, and Mike Green will make for an exciting team to watch.  Grabovski will bring some skill to the table to help replace Ribeiro, who the Capitals lost to the Coyotes via free agency.  The Capitals defense core is pretty good, and should do well this season barring any injuries.  Goaltending is also a question for the Capitals.  Braden Holtby has shown flashes of greatness and had some very solid stretches.  However, at 23 years old, he still has to prove that he can perform at a high level for a full 82-game season.

The teams in this division seem to fall into one of two categories quite nicely, with the exception of the Hurricanes and Islanders.  The teams that will rely heavily on their goaltending are the Blue Jackets, Rangers, and Devils, while the Flyers, Penguins, and Capitals will use their forward skill to try and outscore their opponent. 

It is a dynamic like this that makes it so difficult to predict what will happen in this division.  Will the skill of Crosby, Malkin, and Neal be able to beat the duo of Brodeur and Schneider?  Can Voracek, Giroux, and Simmonds get the puck past their old teammate Bobrovsky? Who gets the edge, Ovechkin or Lundqvist?

“Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships.”  That phrase has a lot of truth to it, however I do not think it is enough to crown the Devils division champs just yet.  As I preview the other teams in the division, sometime before October, keep this dilemma in mind.  One thing is for sure, whether it is between the pipes or on the first two lines, the Metropolitan Division is not lacking in star power.

 

Breakdown and Prediction for the 2013-2014 NJ Devils

2013 results:

19-19-10

4^th in the Atlantic Division

11^th in the Eastern Conference

It would be very easy for a casual fan to put low expectations on the 2013-2014 New Jersey Devils.  The summer of 2013 marked the second straight year that the Devils watched their best player walk out the door.   In 2012 they saw their captain, Zach Parise, join the Minnesota Wild via free agency on a 13 year $98 million contract.  On July 11, 2013 Ilya Kovalchuk retired from the NHL to play in Russia for SKA St. Petersburg, leaving behind 12 years and $77 million.  The loss of Kovalchuk came on the heels of the Devils losing free agent forward David Clarkson to the Maple Leafs.  These losses cause questions to be raised about the Devils offense in 2013-2014.

OFFENSE BY COMMITTEE

The Devils are only a year removed from a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals.  During that playoff run the Devils scored a total of 59 goals, 19 of which (32.2%) were scored by Kovalchuk, Parise, and Clarkson.  During the lockout shortened 2013 campaign, the Devils were 28^th in the league with only 110 goals (2.3/game), 26 of which (23.6%) were scored by Kovalchuk and Clarkson.  During the 11 games that Kovalchuk missed due to injury, the Devils only scored 19 (1.72/game) total goals.  The Devils were not a particularly good offensive team even with Kovalchuk and Clarkson.  What will they do without them?

Devils GM Lou Lamoriello got to work this summer adding pieces to the offense.  On July 5^th they signed Michael Ryder and Ryan Clowe.  Ryder, at 33 years of age, is a durable right winger who has score 30 or more goals 3 times in his career.  Last year he had 35 points (16G-19A) in 46 games with the Stars and Canadiens.  Clowe is a power forward who has played a majority of his career in San Jose.  He was dealt to the Rangers at the trade deadline and was quickly injured.  Clowe has eclipsed the 20 goal mark twice in his career, 2008-2009 and 2010-2011.  Both of these signings came alongside the loss of Clarkson.  The loss of Kovalchuk on July 11^th was followed by the signing of Hall of Famer Jaromir Jagr on July 23^rd.  Jagr has shown, since his return to the league in 2011, that he is still a top-six forward with a superhuman work ethic and great leadership qualities.  Jagr also had 35 points (16G-19A) during the lockout shortened season with the Stars and then with the Bruins.

The Devils projected top-six forwards are Elias, Zajac, Jagr, Clowe, Henrique, and Ryder.  Is this a lineup that will strike fear into its opponents?  Can this group compete in a division that includes the likes of Crosby, Ovechkin, Giroux, Malkin, Tavares, Nash, Neal, Backstrom, Voracek, and E. Staal?  The offense has relied heavily on Kovalchuk over the past few seasons.  If the Devils are to have any sort of offensive threat whatsoever, the new additions will have to step up while their (relatively) young centers, Zajac and Henrique, will have to play at a high level.  The top-six does not have “that guy” who can carry them anymoe.  Therefore, they will look for offense by committee.

SAME LOOK DEFENSE

The Devils defense core did not undergo any major changes this summer.  The team re-signed veteran Marek Zidlicky to a one-year $4 million contract and traded Henrik Tallinder on July 7^th.  The trade of Tallinder presents an opportunity for the young Adam Larsson to begin taking on more responsibility within the defense.  The core seven of Bryce Salvador, Andy Greene, Adam Larsson, Marek Zidlicky, Anton Volchenkov, Mark Fayne, and Peter Harrold will return for the 2013-2014 season.

The fact that there was little change in the defense should not be a point of concern for the Devils this season.  They allowed only 122 goals (2.54/game) ranking them 13^th in the NHL.  A large portion of their games were played in front of Johan Hedberg, who looked shaky in many of his starts and did not exactly instill confidence in the defensemen.  Overall, this is a solid defensive unit that benefits greatly from fantastic goaltending.

THE BACKBONE

The Devils have been able to count on solid goaltending for the past twenty years.  Future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur has spent his whole career in New Jersey and won 3 Stanley Cups (1995, 2000, and 2003).  His career record is 669-380 with a SV % of .913 and a GAA of 2.23.  Brodeur is entering the final year of his contract.  This summer, Luo Lamoriello made sure that there is a succession plan in place for the 41 year old goaltender.  In a shocking deal with the Vancouver Canucks on draft day, the Devils traded the ninth overall pick for goaltender Cory Schneider.

Schneider is no ordinary back-up goalie and will surely replace Brodeur as the Devils starter upon the latter’s retirement.  In 2013 Schneider went 17-9 while starting 30 games.  His career SV% is .927 and his career GAA is 2.20.  Although it has been a small sample size, Schneider has shown potential to be a top-notch NHL goalie.  Schneider will also benefit from the chance to learn from Brodeur and from having a more stable situation in New Jersey.  In Vancouver, Schneider’s partner in crime, Roberto Luongo, was expected to be traded and this season lost his starting position to Schneider.  However, as a whole, the goaltending situation in Vancouver was a mess that Schneider will be glad to get away from.

PREDICTION

My prediction for the 2013-2014 Devils is that they will be a fringe playoff team.  They have the best goaltending tandem in the NHL playing in a defense-first system.  The team’s goals against per game will drop from the already solid 2.54/game.  However, the offense remains a question.  In the end, hockey is a team sport and the Devils just do not have the pieces to make a deep playoff run.  They will end up between 7^th and 10^th in the East.  They will be 4th or 5th in the Metropolitan Division and fighting for one of the at large playoff spots.  If they do make the playoffs, they will be ousted in one long, hard fought series that their goalies will keep them in.

Why I Wouldn't Count Out Scott Hartnell in 2013-2014

When looking ahead to the 2013-2014 season, there are many players that Flyers fans will have their eyes on.  The three major acquisitions this year (Lecavalier, Streit, and Emery) have been discussed at length and there is still hype surrounding B. Schenn, Couturier, and Simmonds.  Giroux and Voracek have shown that they are stars and will perform at a high level, while defense and goaltending will always be scrutinized in Philadelphia.  When looking ahead to next season, one name is consistently being left out of the conversation.

Scott Hartnell scored a team-high 37 goals during the 2011-2012 season.  However, he finished the 2012-2013 season with only 8 goals (in 32 games) while being fourth on the team in penalty minutes per game (2:11/game) behind enforcer Jay Rosehill (5:49/game), Zac Rinaldo (2:39/game), and rookie defenseman Oliver Lauridsen (2:20/game).  By all accounts, it was a down year for Hartnell.

It was easy for Flyers fans to have unrealistic expectations of Hartnell going into the 2012-2013 campaign.  In the six seasons prior to the 2011-2012 he averaged roughly 23 goals a year with only one 30 goal season (2008-2009).  Hartnell’s 37 goal season had just as much (if not more) to do with being on a line with future Hall of Famer Jaromir Jagr and breakout star Claude Giroux than it did with Hartnell being a better player.  Many Flyers fans, myself included, projected that he would put up similar numbers as he continued to play with Giroux. 

The season opener against Pittsburgh solidified this in the minds of Flyers fans.  The Flyers came out with a lackluster first period effort and were down 2-0.  Less than 30 seconds into the second period Hartnell/Giroux struck for the first time.  Hartnell gave Giroux a beautiful saucer pass that he put through the legs of Pittsburgh goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.  Little did Flyers fans know it would be over a month until we saw another connection between Hartnell and Giroux.

In the second period of the third game of the season (1/22/13) Hartnell went down with a foot injury that kept him out for 16 games.  He came back a month later (2/23/13), prompting many to say that he rushed his return.  After earning three points (a goal, two assists) in his first three games back, most likely the effects of adrenaline, he earned three points (three goals, zero assists) in the next nineteen games.  Hartnell looked slow and out of place and quickly became a victim of coach Peter Laviolette’s frequent line shuffling.  By the end of the season Simon Gagne had taken Hartnell’s place on the top line.

Hartnell plays an intense style of hockey.  When he gets frustrated that same intensity that should be used for scoring goals becomes undisciplined play and bad penalties.  It should come as no surprise, therefore, that as his production declined, his penalty minutes rose.

Hartnell was one of the only players to reveal any useful information on locker room cleanout day.  He explained that many Flyers problems this year “started with their d-zone” and discussed his own struggles during the lockout.  Most of the Flyers roster was playing hockey somewhere, while Hartnell was not.  Giroux and Briere were teammates in Berlin, B. Schenn and Couturier played for the Phantoms, and Simmonds went on a hockey playing ‘tour’ of sorts with his friend Chris Stewart (of the St. Louis Blues).  Despite having a few options, Hartnell repeatedly delayed joining a team.  On locker room cleanout day he explained how this negatively affected his workout schedule.  He described himself as “disheartened” and “frustrated” while waiting for the lockout to end. He admitted to taking days off and said that his year started slowly and “just snowballed from there.”

As catastrophic as this past year was for Hartnell, there are a few reasons why I would not count him out going into next season.

First, despite his movement through the lines, Hartnell kept his spot on the first power play unit.  The Flyers power play was one of the best in the league last.  Even with acquuisitions of Lecavalier and Steit (both useful power-play options), Laviolette has stated that he does not plan on changing the first power- play unit.  Being on the ice in power play situations will greatly increase his scoring chances and confidence.

Second, in regards to his conditioning, Hartnell learned his lesson.  Both his comments and demeanor during locker room cleanout day suggest that he recognizes his mistakes and plans to fix them.  There will not be a lockout and Hartnell is the depth chart frontrunner to regain his spot on the top line.  Hartnell recognizes his role on this Flyers team.  He is one of the few veterans who was on the 2009-2010 team and is still a very good power forward.  As a leader, Hartnell knows that he must set an example of conditioning for the Flyer’s young core.

Third, Hartnell is not an injury prone player.  Before this season, Hartnell had played in at least 80 games every year since the 2007-2008 season and he averaged 73 games played per year in the six seasons before that, which were his first six in the league.  Only once in his career did Hartnell play less than 60 games in a season (59 in 2003-2004).  His injury last year was a fluke that could have happened to anyone.

Scott Hartnell is in position to have a very solid year in 2013-2014.  He may not match his career high of 37 goals, but he can definitely return to his old form.  Barring injury, I project that Hartnell will score somewhere slightly above his career average, maybe 25-30 goals.  We have seen the magic that he can have with Claude Giroux on the ice, and hopefully we will see it again.